#Trump’s campaign has sought to toe the line on #abortion policy, aiming to appease his #religious #fundamentalist base while simultaneously duping pro-choice voters, while #KamalaHarris has hit Trump hard on abortion, a key issue for voters.
Your daily reminder. #kamalaharris
Your daily reminder. #kamalaharris
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What I think of when I see a Veterans or Women for Trump sign.
#maga #magats #gop #fuckthegop #trump #trump2024#KamalaHarris #kamala2024#KamalaHQ
Group update!🌟 We've reached 3,370 followers, inching closer to our target of 3,400!
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Plouffe - the campaign manager for Obama's successful 2008 campaign & senior advisor to Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential campaign - is a straight shooter. I trust his campaign data, too, more than I'd trust most public polls. Some key quotes from today's podcast interview. (1 of N):
Q. [Are there] a much larger set of voters who are trying to decide Kamala Harris or the couch, Donald Trump or the couch, correct?"
Plouffe: "Well, every state is a little bit different, but in every battleground state of the seven, there's at least 4% who are still trying to decide who to vote for....in a tied race, if you get slightly more than 50% of that people, that matters. And then both campaigns clearly have people who are, if they vote, gonna vote for them, but haven't firmly decided. So that's where the ground operation comes in, that's where smart use of the candidate comes in.
We think we have advantage there... I had a Zoom last night with some of my old Obama colleagues, many of them who are out now in battleground states to try and ask all of our former colleagues to sign up to go into battlegrounds.
And to a person, and these are people who've got a lot of presidential campaign experience, we're saying that door knocking will be more important in this race from a presidential campaign perspective than they have ever seen.
Because the campaign got started late, there are a lot of people out there still trying to figure out who to vote for, whether to vote....
I think we're better equipped to reach them because we actually have a ground game. But there are still, you know, genuine undecideds.”
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=598
#KamalaHarris key advisor, David Plouffe key quotes part 6 of N:
Plouffe: "With black men, obviously, Trump is, in some polls, going to do better than he did in '20. We don't deny that there's going to be a fight there. But what matters is can we get to the number we need? when you put all the different voting cohorts in the bushel together. So we feel like we've got a pathway to do that for sure.
Again, I would note mathematically, when you're struggling that much with women voters [as Trump is] in battleground states, it puts a lot of pressure on Trump, not just to do better with some of these other cohorts, but to do better than he's doing now.
And we don't see that."
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=1413
This material may be protected by copyright.
Plouffe - the campaign manager for Obama's successful 2008 campaign & senior advisor to Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential campaign - is a straight shooter. I trust his campaign data, too, more than I'd trust most public polls. Some key quotes from today's podcast interview. (1 of N):
Q. [Are there] a much larger set of voters who are trying to decide Kamala Harris or the couch, Donald Trump or the couch, correct?"
Plouffe: "Well, every state is a little bit different, but in every battleground state of the seven, there's at least 4% who are still trying to decide who to vote for....in a tied race, if you get slightly more than 50% of that people, that matters. And then both campaigns clearly have people who are, if they vote, gonna vote for them, but haven't firmly decided. So that's where the ground operation comes in, that's where smart use of the candidate comes in.
We think we have advantage there... I had a Zoom last night with some of my old Obama colleagues, many of them who are out now in battleground states to try and ask all of our former colleagues to sign up to go into battlegrounds.
And to a person, and these are people who've got a lot of presidential campaign experience, we're saying that door knocking will be more important in this race from a presidential campaign perspective than they have ever seen.
Because the campaign got started late, there are a lot of people out there still trying to figure out who to vote for, whether to vote....
I think we're better equipped to reach them because we actually have a ground game. But there are still, you know, genuine undecideds.”
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=598
#KamalaHarris key advisor, David Plouffe key quotes part 5 of N:
Q. “So do you see any signs of erosion of Harris' standing in the Blue Wall states? And I mean, we hear from people from the world of Alyssa Slotkin, from the world of Gretchen Whitmer, from the world of Tammy Baldwin, in the press and otherwise, that Kamala Harris' position is weakening. Not a lot, not like the floor is collapsing underneath her, but that the race is tightening. So do you see that?
Plouffe: "No, and again, I can only speak to our own data, which obviously is something only some of us in the campaign have visibility and two can't share that specifically.
“But what we've seen in those blue wall states is Trump had a big lead. We kept cutting into it. Some of that was he's came down, a lot of it was we were going up.
We think this race has basically been 48, 48, 48, 47 in those states for some time. Again, when we look underneath the hood, because what matters is 100 percent of the vote being allocated. So when you say, okay, how are those undecided voters likely to break?
Who's got an advantage on turnout in terms of various turnout scenarios? We like our position more than Trump, but...listen, I've also heard this week there's some polling in some of those states, not us, that Senate races that have us with a larger lead than we have ourselves.
So we kind of have to tune that out and just go by our own data, which again, I think in a campaign, no data is flawless, but it's based on many sources."
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=1144
This material may be protected by copyright.
Plouffe - the campaign manager for Obama's successful 2008 campaign & senior advisor to Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential campaign - is a straight shooter. I trust his campaign data, too, more than I'd trust most public polls. Some key quotes from today's podcast interview. (1 of N):
Q. [Are there] a much larger set of voters who are trying to decide Kamala Harris or the couch, Donald Trump or the couch, correct?"
Plouffe: "Well, every state is a little bit different, but in every battleground state of the seven, there's at least 4% who are still trying to decide who to vote for....in a tied race, if you get slightly more than 50% of that people, that matters. And then both campaigns clearly have people who are, if they vote, gonna vote for them, but haven't firmly decided. So that's where the ground operation comes in, that's where smart use of the candidate comes in.
We think we have advantage there... I had a Zoom last night with some of my old Obama colleagues, many of them who are out now in battleground states to try and ask all of our former colleagues to sign up to go into battlegrounds.
And to a person, and these are people who've got a lot of presidential campaign experience, we're saying that door knocking will be more important in this race from a presidential campaign perspective than they have ever seen.
Because the campaign got started late, there are a lot of people out there still trying to figure out who to vote for, whether to vote....
I think we're better equipped to reach them because we actually have a ground game. But there are still, you know, genuine undecideds.”
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=598
#KamalaHarris key advisor, David Plouffe key quotes part 4 of N:
Q. So let me ask you just two very direct, straightforward questions that you can answer with a yes or no...
One is [the view] that there is some momentum towards Trump. Does your data in the seven battleground states show any sign that Trump has momentum...Does the Trump campaign have any of that in any of the seven battleground states?
Plouffe: "No.
Let me add, what I think is happening publicly is, while there were more polls than were reality, showing Kamala Harris with an outsized lead, generally, they were based on, you know, Trump was down at like 43, 44, 45. He's going to get 47, 48% of the vote....We really didn't see that, you know, I think we gained, we think in our own data, about a point after the debate, maybe a little more than that. But again, we were on this, this climb from a huge deficit....
Like, so when everyone is excited about the vibes and the great convention and those were all great, we were still staring at a pretty significant deficit that, you know, we needed to erase and we've done that.
But no, we see no sign of Trump momentum.”
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=975
This material may be protected by copyright.
Plouffe - the campaign manager for Obama's successful 2008 campaign & senior advisor to Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential campaign - is a straight shooter. I trust his campaign data, too, more than I'd trust most public polls. Some key quotes from today's podcast interview. (1 of N):
Q. [Are there] a much larger set of voters who are trying to decide Kamala Harris or the couch, Donald Trump or the couch, correct?"
Plouffe: "Well, every state is a little bit different, but in every battleground state of the seven, there's at least 4% who are still trying to decide who to vote for....in a tied race, if you get slightly more than 50% of that people, that matters. And then both campaigns clearly have people who are, if they vote, gonna vote for them, but haven't firmly decided. So that's where the ground operation comes in, that's where smart use of the candidate comes in.
We think we have advantage there... I had a Zoom last night with some of my old Obama colleagues, many of them who are out now in battleground states to try and ask all of our former colleagues to sign up to go into battlegrounds.
And to a person, and these are people who've got a lot of presidential campaign experience, we're saying that door knocking will be more important in this race from a presidential campaign perspective than they have ever seen.
Because the campaign got started late, there are a lot of people out there still trying to figure out who to vote for, whether to vote....
I think we're better equipped to reach them because we actually have a ground game. But there are still, you know, genuine undecideds.”
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=598
#KamalaHarris key advisor, David Plouffe key quotes part 3 of N:
Plouffe: "This race is just dead even....And then basically we've been tied for some time.
And here's why I'm still confident, cautiously confident. I still think we have a higher ceiling meaning: Which of these candidates is likely to get 49 and a half or 50 percent of the vote in more states? I think we still have a slightly higher ceiling. Number one.
Number two, I think Trump is more reliant on first-time voters, irregular voters and the early voting data we're seeing so far, there's no suggestion that they are turning out a bunch of irregular voters. In fact, I think in every battleground, we've got more irregular voters than he does.
That's important...[new irregular voters for Trump at scale] they're not showing up. Maybe they'll show up on election day, but so far there is no sign that they are marauding early vote locations. So I think I'd rather be us than them.
I think Trump is probably closer to a ceiling than we are, but this is very close.
And I think part of what I wanted to do in some of these interviews is just to be honest about that, number one, and also number two, to be clear that to the extent that Democrats thought we were sailing to a victory here, one, that's not the case. And two, it never was...
But I think what it all adds up to is this is going to be an exceedingly close race in seven states.”
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=881
Plouffe - the campaign manager for Obama's successful 2008 campaign & senior advisor to Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential campaign - is a straight shooter. I trust his campaign data, too, more than I'd trust most public polls. Some key quotes from today's podcast interview. (1 of N):
Q. [Are there] a much larger set of voters who are trying to decide Kamala Harris or the couch, Donald Trump or the couch, correct?"
Plouffe: "Well, every state is a little bit different, but in every battleground state of the seven, there's at least 4% who are still trying to decide who to vote for....in a tied race, if you get slightly more than 50% of that people, that matters. And then both campaigns clearly have people who are, if they vote, gonna vote for them, but haven't firmly decided. So that's where the ground operation comes in, that's where smart use of the candidate comes in.
We think we have advantage there... I had a Zoom last night with some of my old Obama colleagues, many of them who are out now in battleground states to try and ask all of our former colleagues to sign up to go into battlegrounds.
And to a person, and these are people who've got a lot of presidential campaign experience, we're saying that door knocking will be more important in this race from a presidential campaign perspective than they have ever seen.
Because the campaign got started late, there are a lot of people out there still trying to figure out who to vote for, whether to vote....
I think we're better equipped to reach them because we actually have a ground game. But there are still, you know, genuine undecideds.”
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=598
#KamalaHarris key advisor, David Plouffe key quotes part 2 of N:
Q. “Does [rankings in 538 or other voting trend aggregators] matter to you? Do you pay any attention to that?"
Plouffe: "Well, I don't because, and again, we in our campaign and the Trump campaign can say the same, we have our own data, no one else has that, right? So just like a consumer company is making decisions about customer retention and acquisition based on their own data, that's what we're doing and so that's our window into the race, which has been really close really since mid-September."
Q. Would you tell, just would you say to Democrats, in addition to don't pay attention to a poll or Kamala Harris is up by four or that Donald Trump is up by four, would you say, please stop paying attention to Nate Silver?
Plouffe: "Well, I don't think it's going to be much value. Nate would be the first person to tell you that if he has somebody in their model of 51 percent, that means 49 percent of the times they lose the race. So number one.
Number two, a model is still based on public polls. And while they try to grade the ones and weight the ones that are better historically than not, it's still based on that.
And I think there's no doubt that there was a period of time post-debate, we saw public polls that had us with a lead we didn't see ourselves. And I think that was probably because Democrats were more enthusiastic for a while about answering surveys. And we also were very conservative in our internal data.
...[On] Nate Silver's model, 538 model, my guess is between now and then, there'll be some days we're up, some days we're down, but all that means is it's a dead heat race....
This race is just dead even. And listen, you know, I think the Trump campaign would admit that too, and you can tell based on their activity and what they're saying that they see that too. So it's a fascinating race in that Trump had a big lead in August, we were able to errase that lead...."
From Impolitic with John Heilemann: David Plouffe: “I’d (Still) Rather Be Us Than Them”, Oct 21, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/impolitic-with-john-heilemann/id1529346075?i=1000673857816&r=793
Thanks @vgoller for this, but everyone should watch this video endorsement from one of the most popular YouTube inluencers. Legal Eagle is a non-partisan top legal channels with over 3.5 million subscribers and this video has already seen hundreds of thousands of views in the last 3 hours since it went live.
Watch, boost and share!
Watch, boost and share!
Your daily reminder. #Kamalaharris
Another key quote from Sarah Longwell:
“So we talked a little bit before about our nervous systems and the way that this, like, authoritarians know this. They know that by exhausting us, they know by hitting us with too many things to respond to, so many lies that you can't combat them effectively, one after the other.
They know that is how you get people to just give up, throw up their hands. And I talked about the fact that, like, right now, it feels like we're sleepwalking into this autocracy because nobody feels, like, up to the task. But I believe this.
But here's the thing, guys, and I say this a lot, you cannot roll up your sleeves if you are wringing your hands.
And so despite all of us up here wetting the bed and being in our feelings, like the point of us coming was to tell you, to try to like communicate how serious it is.
And I know you know that, because otherwise you wouldn't be here. But like, don't just panic. Don't refresh 538.
Call everyone you know. Call the people who are soft Republicans. I know that you know them.
Our voters tend to be center left to center right. And if you're progressive, great, pod save dude. We actually welcome you here.
We love you. We love those guys. But like, go do something.”
From The Next Level: Live from Pittsburgh!, Oct 20, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-from-pittsburgh/id1647085571?i=1000673754719&r=3465
I trust Sarah Longwell's political instincts:
“Now, I am doing some things, whether it's out of self-preservation to maintain my nervous system, but in some ways, it's actually just a very calculated, what do we need to do? ... I'm just gonna tell you what we need. What we need.
We need Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Nebraska, too.
I feel good about Michigan and Wisconsin, where the margins were considerably better in 2020. And where in Wisconsin, we've got a couple of things that we've seen since the 2020 election. In Michigan, we saw Gretchen Whitmer win by double digits there and get the MAGA candidate rejected.... I feel like in both of those, and the polling has been the best in those states. You guys, there's a reason we came here...because Pennsylvania is the ballgame.
And so, I think that late-breaking independents, these right-leaning independents, soft GOP voters, it's who we talk to all the time, I think they break for her, ultimately.
That's one data point. The second is the boys versus girls thing, men versus women. And the question that I've been asking myself all the time is that if I was running a campaign, which would I want?
Would I want to rely on women to turn out? Women who show up to vote, who are a majority of the population and make up a majority of the actual voters in every election? Or would I want to put it on Joe Rogan listeners?
Which would it be? I'll take the women every day, all right?”
From The Next Level: Live from Pittsburgh!, Oct 20, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-from-pittsburgh/id1647085571?i=1000673754719&r=3340
NEW: The Las Vegas Sun endorses Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
"The upcoming presidential election presents a pivotal moment for the United States, offering a choice between preserving democracy or sliding into autocracy." #KamalaHarrishttps://lasvegassun.com/news/2024/oct/20/the-sun-endorses-harris-and-walz-to-lead-the-natio/
Conservative, #Republican women are voting for #KamalaHarris, albeit “quietly‽” I guess we will find out on election day if #Republicans en mass vote for #Kamala & put country over party.
👉🏾 #GOP Official for Kamala Predicts ‘Silent Majority’ Will Win https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-official-for-kamala-predicts-silent-majority-will-win/
@kevindalley @lauren Scarily, the fate of the #UnitedStates 🇺🇸 rests in the hands of #Republicans. 😱
I pray #Republican women will vote for #KamalaHarris in #Georgia, #NorthCarolna & #Pennsylvania.
#DonaldTrump will win most of the Southeast (where I live), so my vote against him is irrelevant.
Due to the Electoral College, it statistically will not matter if I vote for #Kamala, as #GOP voters outnumber #Democrats & other political parties combined. 😞
This will be a close race! I am hoping #KamalaHarris wins #NorthCarolina as it would provide a small buffer just in case she loses #Michigan, #Wisconsin or #Pennsylvania.
👉🏾 North Carolina sets record for first day of voting with more than 350,000 ballots https://www.rawstory.com/north-carolina-voters/ 🔛 @RawStory