https://www.metafilter.com/206183/-The-Most-Important-Election-of-Our-Lifetimes-
#ElectionDay #election#Election2024#Harris #politics #PresidentialElection #trump#US#USElection
https://www.metafilter.com/206183/-The-Most-Important-Election-of-Our-Lifetimes-
#ElectionDay #election#Election2024#Harris #politics #PresidentialElection #trump#US#USElection
Core #Atlanta 🔵 metro counties over-performed and suburban/exurban underperformed, relative to previous days.
Total turnout is 3,995,938 / 55.2% turnout.
As of yesterday, the urban turnout (38.2%) has just about caught up with suburban (40.7%) and rural (41.7%) turnout, after some considerable deficits early in the early voting cycle.
And, the TargetSmart modeled party as of yesterday showed a delta between 🔵 Dems and 🔴 Republicans is down to 3.3 pct pt, LOWER than 2020's 5.5 pct pt difference.
I'd expect with today's EV turnout, those figures would continue to narrow to 🔵 's advantage.
There about 100k mail-in ballots left to return in GA, which will be rolling in from now until 11/5. Absentee voters can also vote in-person in lieu of returning their paper ballot.
A couple of less-reliable pollsters (image attached) also indicate that #Harris' momentum has shifted favorable in the past couple of days. Ultimately, A lot is counting on independent voters - whose preferences may determine the outcome of this race in Georgia.
Switching costs are real. And now quantified for banking.
Reminder: monopolists and oligarchs pay lip service to “competition.” That’s why they are suing to stop this final reg.
From @pluralistic
The @KamalaHarrisWin Group has hit 4000 followers 🎉
It's amazing to see the work being done on the Fediverse ahead of the upcoming US election.
For our team, it's especially great to see the support in this space for the Harris campaign.
There's not long left now, so if you want to discuss, share, or learn more about the Harris campaign follow the group!
This is a really important day in the US election so we hope our American friends are up to speed!
You can follow non-partisan @voteearlyday and see more information about early voting across the Fediverse here: https://mastodon.social/@voteearlyday/113390660516353226
If you're supporting the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, make sure you check out the @KamalaHarrisWin Group too, there's a lot of lively discussion!
You might like to follow Vote Early Day, which provides encouragement and advice for voting early:
Also, as mentioned before, there's a Fediverse discussion group for Harris supporters sharing the latest news and info at:
#USPolitics#USElections#Elections#EarlyVoting#Voting#Harris#KamalaHarris
Harris 49.0% (+4.0%)
Trump 45.0%
Stein 2.0%
Oliver 1.0%
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research
Oct 9 - Oct 20
794RV
Pollster rating: 2.4/3
View poll https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-october-2024/
(An insta share. Joshua Doss has great stuff. I don't think he's here but if I'm wrong I'd like to know.)
#election #election2024 #vote #voteblue #harris #harriswalz #harriswalz2024 #bluewave
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBWtQpWvz2I/?igsh=eXpkcHFlcHQ2OHpt
The alt text contains a CSV excerpt of the data contained in the maps.
Some thoughts and findings:
📐 If we apply the count of early voters without previous partisan primary preferences ("No Party") and multiply that count by the proportion of Biden vs. Trump in 2020, we end up effectively even at 80k votes for Republicans and 79k votes for Democrats.
Using the 2020 vote totals is a bit crude, but it lets us identify general directionality as to the impact of these "No Party" voters.
📍 The maps clearly show turnout in traditionally GOP counties in the northern suburbs, supporting the hypothesis that GOP early vote advocacy efforts are motivating those voters to vote early instead of at Election Day.
🔵 Among all active voters, 7.9% and 7.5% with Dem preferences in Dekalb and Fulton Counties (Dem strongholds) have voted.
🔴 Among all active voters, 7.4% and 9.2% with GOP preferences in Cherokee and Forsyth Counties (GOP strongholds).
All this goes to say - at least in early vote, this race is ridiculously even.
👀 Over the next few days, I'll be on the lookout for a turnout breakout by Dems or the GOP to see if there are clearer signals on directionality.
🗳️ Again, expect to see a massive revived GOTV effort starting next week and not letting up until Nov 5th.
THIS… is “pro life”:
Via Jonathan Cohn:
NEW
#Harris rolling out a major policy proposal today: Having Medicare cover long-term care at home
Idea is to help millions of seniors & people w/disabilities -- and their family caregivers too
Announcement to come on “The View”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/kamala-harris/muslim-faith-leaders-endorse-kamala-harris-rcna174190
"A group of imams endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in an open letter shared first with NBC News on Sunday, a critical boost as she steps up her efforts to win back disaffected Muslim voters amid the Israel-Hamas war."
#Harris has a lead w/in the margin of error in #Arizona +2, #Michigan +3, #Nevada +1, #Pennsylvania +1, & #Wisconsin +2. Trump is ahead 49% to 47% in %Georgia, & the candidates are tied at 49% in #NorthCarolina.
#VoteBlue
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/swing-state-polling-finds-deadlocked-presidential
#USpol#Authoritarianism#Republicans#Autocracy#Tyranny
#democracy#ProsecutorVFelon#WeAreNotGoingBack#Freedom#HarrisWalz2024
Americans should be troubled with how cool and collected Vance was while the propaganda just rolled off his tongue.
That Vance refused to acknowledge that Donald Trump lost the election is the takeaway from this 'neighborly' debate.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-pledges-support-ukraine-takes-veiled-jab-trump-2024-09-26/
Harris 51.0% (+3.0%)
Trump 48.0%
Morning Consult
Sep 19 - Sep 25
785LV
Pollster rating: 1.9/3
Harris 48.0% (+1.0%)
Trump 47.0%
Oliver 2.0%
Stein 1.0%
CNN/SSRS
Sep 19 - Sep 22
2074LV
View poll https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/polls-trump-harris-presidential-election/index.html
#Harris#GOP#Democrats #RVAT #Politics #News #USA #2024Election #Vote#Polls #MAGA#Republicans#Kamala#Walz @KamalaHarrisWin