Georgia Election Data Update
Georgia Election Data Update  ·  4 months ago
🗺️ As promised, attached are maps of Early Voting from Days 1 through 3 by County, and last partisan ballot pulled - or no ballot.

The alt text contains a CSV excerpt of the data contained in the maps.

Some thoughts and findings:

📐 If we apply the count of early voters without previous partisan primary preferences ("No Party") and multiply that count by the proportion of Biden vs. Trump in 2020, we end up effectively even at 80k votes for Republicans and 79k votes for Democrats.

Using the 2020 vote totals is a bit crude, but it lets us identify general directionality as to the impact of these "No Party" voters.

📍 The maps clearly show turnout in traditionally GOP counties in the northern suburbs, supporting the hypothesis that GOP early vote advocacy efforts are motivating those voters to vote early instead of at Election Day.

🔵 Among all active voters, 7.9% and 7.5% with Dem preferences in Dekalb and Fulton Counties (Dem strongholds) have voted.

🔴 Among all active voters, 7.4% and 9.2% with GOP preferences in Cherokee and Forsyth Counties (GOP strongholds).

All this goes to say - at least in early vote, this race is ridiculously even.

👀 Over the next few days, I'll be on the lookout for a turnout breakout by Dems or the GOP to see if there are clearer signals on directionality.

🗳️ Again, expect to see a massive revived GOTV effort starting next week and not letting up until Nov 5th.

#georgia
#elections
#election2024
#harris
#EarlyVote

County,DemCount FULTON,56751 GWINNETT,24170 COBB,24835 DEKALB,37701 FORSYTH,3820 CHATHAM,9381 CHEROKEE,3352 HENRY,11790 CLAYTON,14970 HALL,2460 HOUSTON,4514 COWETA,2921 MUSCOGEE,7164 COLUMBIA,2661 FAYETTE,5179 PAULDING,2842 DOUGLAS,6895 LOWNDES,2356 WALTON,1342 GLYNN,1882 RICHMOND,6682 NEWTON,3748 CATOOSA,758 FLOYD,1467 BIBB,4032 BARROW,998 JACKSON,705 BARTOW,883 CARROLL,1402 BRYAN,838 EFFINGHAM,700 ROCKDALE,5197 SPALDING,1665 THOMAS,1148 CAMDEN,751 LIBERTY,2487 WHITFIELD,561 GORDON,395 BULLOCH,879 DAWSON,339 CLARKE,2657 TROUP,965 POLK,463 OCONEE,727 MURRAY,159 LUMPKIN,410 DOUGHERTY,2944 HARRIS,648 HABERSHAM,323 STEPHENS,263 WHITE,269 UNION,394 FANNIN,272 TIFT,611 COLQUITT,399 BALDWIN,1238 BUTTS,509 PEACH,945 WARE,637 GILMER,266 PICKENS,222 MONROE,635 LEE,562 JONES,599 WALKER,274 MADISON,332 HART,346 UPSON,545 WAYNE,359 PUTNAM,375 LAURENS,577 GREENE,499 DECATUR,736 BANKS,94 HARALSON,144 PIKE,174 FRANKLIN,115 TOWNS,234 COFFEE,415 MORGAN,468 PIERCE,108 GRADY,433 RABUN,262 LAMAR,376 SUMTER,711 CRISP,451 CHATTOOGA,184 COOK,254 BEN HILL,494 BRANTLEY,96 MERIWETHER,404 DADE,149 TOOMBS,245 BERRIEN,110 JASPER,159 LONG,293 MCDUFFIE,397 BURKE,535 OGLETHORPE,293 ELBERT,459 BROOKS,272 BLECKLEY,150 DODGE,212 CRAWFORD,273 MCINTOSH,348 SCREVEN,412 WORTH,275 EMANUEL,261 MITCHELL,416 WASHINGTON,869 HEARD,80 BACON,62 JEFF DAVIS,117 CHARLTON,117 TATTNALL,191 EVANS,130 CANDLER,144 APPLING,200 TAYLOR,189 PULASKI,142 TURNER,248 WILKES,335 MACON,464 EARLY,285 IRWIN,79 SEMINOLE,129 LANIER,101
County,DemCount FULTON,56751 GWINNETT,24170 COBB,24835 DEKALB,37701 FORSYTH,3820 CHATHAM,9381 CHEROKEE,3352 HENRY,11790 CLAYTON,14970 HALL,2460 HOUSTON,4514 COWETA,2921 MUSCOGEE,7164 COLUMBIA,2661 FAYETTE,5179 PAULDING,2842 DOUGLAS,6895 LOWNDES,2356 WALTON,1342 GLYNN,1882 RICHMOND,6682 NEWTON,3748 CATOOSA,758 FLOYD,1467 BIBB,4032 BARROW,998 JACKSON,705 BARTOW,883 CARROLL,1402 BRYAN,838 EFFINGHAM,700 ROCKDALE,5197 SPALDING,1665 THOMAS,1148 CAMDEN,751 LIBERTY,2487 WHITFIELD,561 GORDON,395 BULLOCH,879 DAWSON,339 CLARKE,2657 TROUP,965 POLK,463 OCONEE,727 MURRAY,159 LUMPKIN,410 DOUGHERTY,2944 HARRIS,648 HABERSHAM,323 STEPHENS,263 WHITE,269 UNION,394 FANNIN,272 TIFT,611 COLQUITT,399 BALDWIN,1238 BUTTS,509 PEACH,945 WARE,637 GILMER,266 PICKENS,222 MONROE,635 LEE,562 JONES,599 WALKER,274 MADISON,332 HART,346 UPSON,545 WAYNE,359 PUTNAM,375 LAURENS,577 GREENE,499 DECATUR,736 BANKS,94 HARALSON,144 PIKE,174 FRANKLIN,115 TOWNS,234 COFFEE,415 MORGAN,468 PIERCE,108 GRADY,433 RABUN,262 LAMAR,376 SUMTER,711 CRISP,451 CHATTOOGA,184 COOK,254 BEN HILL,494 BRANTLEY,96 MERIWETHER,404 DADE,149 TOOMBS,245 BERRIEN,110 JASPER,159 LONG,293 MCDUFFIE,397 BURKE,535 OGLETHORPE,293 ELBERT,459 BROOKS,272 BLECKLEY,150 DODGE,212 CRAWFORD,273 MCINTOSH,348 SCREVEN,412 WORTH,275 EMANUEL,261 MITCHELL,416 WASHINGTON,869 HEARD,80 BACON,62 JEFF DAVIS,117 CHARLTON,117 TATTNALL,191 EVANS,130 CANDLER,144 APPLING,200 TAYLOR,189 PULASKI,142 TURNER,248 WILKES,335 MACON,464 EARLY,285 IRWIN,79 SEMINOLE,129 LANIER,101
County,DemCount FULTON,56751 GWINNETT,24170 COBB,24835 DEKALB,37701 FORSYTH,3820 CHATHAM,9381 CHEROKEE,3352 HENRY,11790 CLAYTON,14970 HALL,2460 HOUSTON,4514 COWETA,2921 MUSCOGEE,7164 COLUMBIA,2661 FAYETTE,5179 PAULDING,2842 DOUGLAS,6895 LOWNDES,2356 WALTON,1342 GLYNN,1882 RICHMOND,6682 NEWTON,3748 CATOOSA,758 FLOYD,1467 BIBB,4032 BARROW,998 JACKSON,705 BARTOW,883 CARROLL,1402 BRYAN,838 EFFINGHAM,700 ROCKDALE,5197 SPALDING,1665 THOMAS,1148 CAMDEN,751 LIBERTY,2487 WHITFIELD,561 GORDON,395 BULLOCH,879 DAWSON,339 CLARKE,2657 TROUP,965 POLK,463 OCONEE,727 MURRAY,159 LUMPKIN,410 DOUGHERTY,2944 HARRIS,648 HABERSHAM,323 STEPHENS,263 WHITE,269 UNION,394 FANNIN,272 TIFT,611 COLQUITT,399 BALDWIN,1238 BUTTS,509 PEACH,945 WARE,637 GILMER,266 PICKENS,222 MONROE,635 LEE,562 JONES,599 WALKER,274 MADISON,332 HART,346 UPSON,545 WAYNE,359 PUTNAM,375 LAURENS,577 GREENE,499 DECATUR,736 BANKS,94 HARALSON,144 PIKE,174 FRANKLIN,115 TOWNS,234 COFFEE,415 MORGAN,468 PIERCE,108 GRADY,433 RABUN,262 LAMAR,376 SUMTER,711 CRISP,451 CHATTOOGA,184 COOK,254 BEN HILL,494 BRANTLEY,96 MERIWETHER,404 DADE,149 TOOMBS,245 BERRIEN,110 JASPER,159 LONG,293 MCDUFFIE,397 BURKE,535 OGLETHORPE,293 ELBERT,459 BROOKS,272 BLECKLEY,150 DODGE,212 CRAWFORD,273 MCINTOSH,348 SCREVEN,412 WORTH,275 EMANUEL,261 MITCHELL,416 WASHINGTON,869 HEARD,80 BACON,62 JEFF DAVIS,117 CHARLTON,117 TATTNALL,191 EVANS,130 CANDLER,144 APPLING,200 TAYLOR,189 PULASKI,142 TURNER,248 WILKES,335 MACON,464 EARLY,285 IRWIN,79 SEMINOLE,129 LANIER,101
County,RepCount FULTON,21008 GWINNETT,18964 COBB,21792 DEKALB,6616 FORSYTH,15103 CHATHAM,7399 CHEROKEE,14037 HENRY,6369 CLAYTON,1709 HALL,11872 HOUSTON,7158 COWETA,8373 MUSCOGEE,4090 COLUMBIA,6842 FAYETTE,6106 PAULDING,6333 DOUGLAS,3384 LOWNDES,3348 WALTON,5381 GLYNN,4825 RICHMOND,2218 NEWTON,2205 CATOOSA,4472 FLOYD,4700 BIBB,2110 BARROW,3729 JACKSON,4706 BARTOW,4268 CARROLL,3979 BRYAN,2617 EFFINGHAM,2908 ROCKDALE,1144 SPALDING,2890 THOMAS,2622 CAMDEN,2182 LIBERTY,993 WHITFIELD,3215 GORDON,2928 BULLOCH,2155 DAWSON,2802 CLARKE,1155 TROUP,2227 POLK,2753 OCONEE,3076 MURRAY,2481 LUMPKIN,2683 DOUGHERTY,803 HARRIS,2070 HABERSHAM,2878 STEPHENS,2026 WHITE,2514 UNION,2531 FANNIN,1918 TIFT,1711 COLQUITT,1528 BALDWIN,1897 BUTTS,1837 PEACH,1290 WARE,1260 GILMER,2066 PICKENS,1930 MONROE,2058 LEE,1630 JONES,1302 WALKER,1852 MADISON,1788 HART,1927 UPSON,1788 WAYNE,1737 PUTNAM,1615 LAURENS,1265 GREENE,1992 DECATUR,923 BANKS,1426 HARALSON,1751 PIKE,1636 FRANKLIN,1643 TOWNS,1687 COFFEE,1495 MORGAN,1783 PIERCE,1478 GRADY,1097 RABUN,1831 LAMAR,1171 SUMTER,758 CRISP,966 CHATTOOGA,1254 COOK,840 BEN HILL,913 BRANTLEY,1162 MERIWETHER,919 DADE,1103 TOOMBS,1068 BERRIEN,889 JASPER,798 LONG,459 MCDUFFIE,1023 BURKE,539 OGLETHORPE,866 ELBERT,840 BROOKS,395 BLECKLEY,900 DODGE,832 CRAWFORD,615 MCINTOSH,928 SCREVEN,572 WORTH,838 EMANUEL,707 MITCHELL,584 WASHINGTON,421 HEARD,621 BACON,839 JEFF DAVIS,494 CHARLTON,531 TATTNALL,627 EVANS,435 CANDLER,596 APPLING,836 TAYLOR,485 PULASKI,794 TURNER,531
County,RepCount FULTON,21008 GWINNETT,18964 COBB,21792 DEKALB,6616 FORSYTH,15103 CHATHAM,7399 CHEROKEE,14037 HENRY,6369 CLAYTON,1709 HALL,11872 HOUSTON,7158 COWETA,8373 MUSCOGEE,4090 COLUMBIA,6842 FAYETTE,6106 PAULDING,6333 DOUGLAS,3384 LOWNDES,3348 WALTON,5381 GLYNN,4825 RICHMOND,2218 NEWTON,2205 CATOOSA,4472 FLOYD,4700 BIBB,2110 BARROW,3729 JACKSON,4706 BARTOW,4268 CARROLL,3979 BRYAN,2617 EFFINGHAM,2908 ROCKDALE,1144 SPALDING,2890 THOMAS,2622 CAMDEN,2182 LIBERTY,993 WHITFIELD,3215 GORDON,2928 BULLOCH,2155 DAWSON,2802 CLARKE,1155 TROUP,2227 POLK,2753 OCONEE,3076 MURRAY,2481 LUMPKIN,2683 DOUGHERTY,803 HARRIS,2070 HABERSHAM,2878 STEPHENS,2026 WHITE,2514 UNION,2531 FANNIN,1918 TIFT,1711 COLQUITT,1528 BALDWIN,1897 BUTTS,1837 PEACH,1290 WARE,1260 GILMER,2066 PICKENS,1930 MONROE,2058 LEE,1630 JONES,1302 WALKER,1852 MADISON,1788 HART,1927 UPSON,1788 WAYNE,1737 PUTNAM,1615 LAURENS,1265 GREENE,1992 DECATUR,923 BANKS,1426 HARALSON,1751 PIKE,1636 FRANKLIN,1643 TOWNS,1687 COFFEE,1495 MORGAN,1783 PIERCE,1478 GRADY,1097 RABUN,1831 LAMAR,1171 SUMTER,758 CRISP,966 CHATTOOGA,1254 COOK,840 BEN HILL,913 BRANTLEY,1162 MERIWETHER,919 DADE,1103 TOOMBS,1068 BERRIEN,889 JASPER,798 LONG,459 MCDUFFIE,1023 BURKE,539 OGLETHORPE,866 ELBERT,840 BROOKS,395 BLECKLEY,900 DODGE,832 CRAWFORD,615 MCINTOSH,928 SCREVEN,572 WORTH,838 EMANUEL,707 MITCHELL,584 WASHINGTON,421 HEARD,621 BACON,839 JEFF DAVIS,494 CHARLTON,531 TATTNALL,627 EVANS,435 CANDLER,596 APPLING,836 TAYLOR,485 PULASKI,794 TURNER,531
County,RepCount FULTON,21008 GWINNETT,18964 COBB,21792 DEKALB,6616 FORSYTH,15103 CHATHAM,7399 CHEROKEE,14037 HENRY,6369 CLAYTON,1709 HALL,11872 HOUSTON,7158 COWETA,8373 MUSCOGEE,4090 COLUMBIA,6842 FAYETTE,6106 PAULDING,6333 DOUGLAS,3384 LOWNDES,3348 WALTON,5381 GLYNN,4825 RICHMOND,2218 NEWTON,2205 CATOOSA,4472 FLOYD,4700 BIBB,2110 BARROW,3729 JACKSON,4706 BARTOW,4268 CARROLL,3979 BRYAN,2617 EFFINGHAM,2908 ROCKDALE,1144 SPALDING,2890 THOMAS,2622 CAMDEN,2182 LIBERTY,993 WHITFIELD,3215 GORDON,2928 BULLOCH,2155 DAWSON,2802 CLARKE,1155 TROUP,2227 POLK,2753 OCONEE,3076 MURRAY,2481 LUMPKIN,2683 DOUGHERTY,803 HARRIS,2070 HABERSHAM,2878 STEPHENS,2026 WHITE,2514 UNION,2531 FANNIN,1918 TIFT,1711 COLQUITT,1528 BALDWIN,1897 BUTTS,1837 PEACH,1290 WARE,1260 GILMER,2066 PICKENS,1930 MONROE,2058 LEE,1630 JONES,1302 WALKER,1852 MADISON,1788 HART,1927 UPSON,1788 WAYNE,1737 PUTNAM,1615 LAURENS,1265 GREENE,1992 DECATUR,923 BANKS,1426 HARALSON,1751 PIKE,1636 FRANKLIN,1643 TOWNS,1687 COFFEE,1495 MORGAN,1783 PIERCE,1478 GRADY,1097 RABUN,1831 LAMAR,1171 SUMTER,758 CRISP,966 CHATTOOGA,1254 COOK,840 BEN HILL,913 BRANTLEY,1162 MERIWETHER,919 DADE,1103 TOOMBS,1068 BERRIEN,889 JASPER,798 LONG,459 MCDUFFIE,1023 BURKE,539 OGLETHORPE,866 ELBERT,840 BROOKS,395 BLECKLEY,900 DODGE,832 CRAWFORD,615 MCINTOSH,928 SCREVEN,572 WORTH,838 EMANUEL,707 MITCHELL,584 WASHINGTON,421 HEARD,621 BACON,839 JEFF DAVIS,494 CHARLTON,531 TATTNALL,627 EVANS,435 CANDLER,596 APPLING,836 TAYLOR,485 PULASKI,794 TURNER,531
County,NoPartisanCount FULTON,20975 GWINNETT,13543 COBB,11529 DEKALB,9780 FORSYTH,5932 CHATHAM,4898 CHEROKEE,4528 HENRY,4438 CLAYTON,3701 HALL,3520 HOUSTON,3292 COWETA,3109 MUSCOGEE,2781 COLUMBIA,2685 FAYETTE,2457 PAULDING,2378 DOUGLAS,2313 LOWNDES,1818 WALTON,1637 GLYNN,1619 RICHMOND,1600 NEWTON,1518 CATOOSA,1475 FLOYD,1471 BIBB,1410 BARROW,1410 JACKSON,1402 BARTOW,1387 CARROLL,1316 BRYAN,1240 EFFINGHAM,1179 ROCKDALE,1147 SPALDING,975 THOMAS,924 CAMDEN,911 LIBERTY,891 WHITFIELD,883 GORDON,877 BULLOCH,775 DAWSON,739 CLARKE,738 TROUP,723 POLK,704 OCONEE,690 MURRAY,685 LUMPKIN,646 DOUGHERTY,636 HARRIS,618 HABERSHAM,611 STEPHENS,576 WHITE,568 UNION,556 FANNIN,550 TIFT,541 COLQUITT,537 BALDWIN,531 BUTTS,510 PEACH,498 WARE,491 GILMER,489 PICKENS,487 MONROE,487 LEE,487 JONES,477 WALKER,456 MADISON,451 HART,448 UPSON,433 WAYNE,432 PUTNAM,425 LAURENS,405 GREENE,391 DECATUR,387 BANKS,380 HARALSON,369 PIKE,354 FRANKLIN,339 TOWNS,327 COFFEE,324 MORGAN,324 PIERCE,320 GRADY,314 RABUN,313 LAMAR,309 SUMTER,297 CRISP,292 CHATTOOGA,287 COOK,281 BEN HILL,268 BRANTLEY,267 MERIWETHER,264 DADE,254 TOOMBS,252 BERRIEN,246 JASPER,244 LONG,243 MCDUFFIE,226 BURKE,216 OGLETHORPE,204 ELBERT,199 BROOKS,192 BLECKLEY,192 DODGE,192 CRAWFORD,190 MCINTOSH,168 SCREVEN,165 WORTH,164 EMANUEL,161 MITCHELL,157 WASHINGTON,151 HEARD,140 BACON,139 JEFF DAVIS,135 CHARLTON,134 TATTNALL,128 EVANS,127 CANDLER,116 APPLING,115 TAYLOR,110 PULASKI,105 TURNER,105 WILKES,101 MACON,99 EARLY,99 IRWIN,95 SEMINOLE,93
County,NoPartisanCount FULTON,20975 GWINNETT,13543 COBB,11529 DEKALB,9780 FORSYTH,5932 CHATHAM,4898 CHEROKEE,4528 HENRY,4438 CLAYTON,3701 HALL,3520 HOUSTON,3292 COWETA,3109 MUSCOGEE,2781 COLUMBIA,2685 FAYETTE,2457 PAULDING,2378 DOUGLAS,2313 LOWNDES,1818 WALTON,1637 GLYNN,1619 RICHMOND,1600 NEWTON,1518 CATOOSA,1475 FLOYD,1471 BIBB,1410 BARROW,1410 JACKSON,1402 BARTOW,1387 CARROLL,1316 BRYAN,1240 EFFINGHAM,1179 ROCKDALE,1147 SPALDING,975 THOMAS,924 CAMDEN,911 LIBERTY,891 WHITFIELD,883 GORDON,877 BULLOCH,775 DAWSON,739 CLARKE,738 TROUP,723 POLK,704 OCONEE,690 MURRAY,685 LUMPKIN,646 DOUGHERTY,636 HARRIS,618 HABERSHAM,611 STEPHENS,576 WHITE,568 UNION,556 FANNIN,550 TIFT,541 COLQUITT,537 BALDWIN,531 BUTTS,510 PEACH,498 WARE,491 GILMER,489 PICKENS,487 MONROE,487 LEE,487 JONES,477 WALKER,456 MADISON,451 HART,448 UPSON,433 WAYNE,432 PUTNAM,425 LAURENS,405 GREENE,391 DECATUR,387 BANKS,380 HARALSON,369 PIKE,354 FRANKLIN,339 TOWNS,327 COFFEE,324 MORGAN,324 PIERCE,320 GRADY,314 RABUN,313 LAMAR,309 SUMTER,297 CRISP,292 CHATTOOGA,287 COOK,281 BEN HILL,268 BRANTLEY,267 MERIWETHER,264 DADE,254 TOOMBS,252 BERRIEN,246 JASPER,244 LONG,243 MCDUFFIE,226 BURKE,216 OGLETHORPE,204 ELBERT,199 BROOKS,192 BLECKLEY,192 DODGE,192 CRAWFORD,190 MCINTOSH,168 SCREVEN,165 WORTH,164 EMANUEL,161 MITCHELL,157 WASHINGTON,151 HEARD,140 BACON,139 JEFF DAVIS,135 CHARLTON,134 TATTNALL,128 EVANS,127 CANDLER,116 APPLING,115 TAYLOR,110 PULASKI,105 TURNER,105 WILKES,101 MACON,99 EARLY,99 IRWIN,95 SEMINOLE,93
County,NoPartisanCount FULTON,20975 GWINNETT,13543 COBB,11529 DEKALB,9780 FORSYTH,5932 CHATHAM,4898 CHEROKEE,4528 HENRY,4438 CLAYTON,3701 HALL,3520 HOUSTON,3292 COWETA,3109 MUSCOGEE,2781 COLUMBIA,2685 FAYETTE,2457 PAULDING,2378 DOUGLAS,2313 LOWNDES,1818 WALTON,1637 GLYNN,1619 RICHMOND,1600 NEWTON,1518 CATOOSA,1475 FLOYD,1471 BIBB,1410 BARROW,1410 JACKSON,1402 BARTOW,1387 CARROLL,1316 BRYAN,1240 EFFINGHAM,1179 ROCKDALE,1147 SPALDING,975 THOMAS,924 CAMDEN,911 LIBERTY,891 WHITFIELD,883 GORDON,877 BULLOCH,775 DAWSON,739 CLARKE,738 TROUP,723 POLK,704 OCONEE,690 MURRAY,685 LUMPKIN,646 DOUGHERTY,636 HARRIS,618 HABERSHAM,611 STEPHENS,576 WHITE,568 UNION,556 FANNIN,550 TIFT,541 COLQUITT,537 BALDWIN,531 BUTTS,510 PEACH,498 WARE,491 GILMER,489 PICKENS,487 MONROE,487 LEE,487 JONES,477 WALKER,456 MADISON,451 HART,448 UPSON,433 WAYNE,432 PUTNAM,425 LAURENS,405 GREENE,391 DECATUR,387 BANKS,380 HARALSON,369 PIKE,354 FRANKLIN,339 TOWNS,327 COFFEE,324 MORGAN,324 PIERCE,320 GRADY,314 RABUN,313 LAMAR,309 SUMTER,297 CRISP,292 CHATTOOGA,287 COOK,281 BEN HILL,268 BRANTLEY,267 MERIWETHER,264 DADE,254 TOOMBS,252 BERRIEN,246 JASPER,244 LONG,243 MCDUFFIE,226 BURKE,216 OGLETHORPE,204 ELBERT,199 BROOKS,192 BLECKLEY,192 DODGE,192 CRAWFORD,190 MCINTOSH,168 SCREVEN,165 WORTH,164 EMANUEL,161 MITCHELL,157 WASHINGTON,151 HEARD,140 BACON,139 JEFF DAVIS,135 CHARLTON,134 TATTNALL,128 EVANS,127 CANDLER,116 APPLING,115 TAYLOR,110 PULASKI,105 TURNER,105 WILKES,101 MACON,99 EARLY,99 IRWIN,95 SEMINOLE,93