Why might #Bluesky be worth a few billions? Decentralized social has the potential to "amazon" (here's a word you haven't heard in a while...) the trillion-dollar market cap social media platform market like Amazon "amazoned" Borders 25 years ago. In this thinking, it's completely early days and lack of biz model and current market shares don't matter.

Supporting evidence: Farcaster recently raised $150m at $1b valuation with far fewer users.

(cont'd)

Whichever the outcome, this outcome will have an impact on the Fediverse!

If #bluesky raises a ton, many other companies are going to get started and flood the space.

If they aren't very successful, the venture money will stay out of the space.

Which is something many people in the #Fediverse would prefer, I realize that. But whatever we all prefer, the impact will be felt.

I guess #Bluesky must be in heavy fundraising mode by now if my math is in the right ballpark about how much they raised and their burn rate.

Will they be successful? At what valuation? An interesting question! I figure their valuation could be anywhere between $0 and a few billions or so.

Why $0? No business model, and no obvious one on the horizon. Intense competition with the new product of the biggest incumbent that's already at 20x their size.

Why a few billions? ... (cont'd)

Why might #Bluesky be worth a few billions? Decentralized social has the potential to "amazon" (here's a word you haven't heard in a while...) the trillion-dollar market cap social media platform market like Amazon "amazoned" Borders 25 years ago. In this thinking, it's completely early days and lack of biz model and current market shares don't matter.

Supporting evidence: Farcaster recently raised $150m at $1b valuation with far fewer users.

(cont'd)

I guess #Bluesky must be in heavy fundraising mode by now if my math is in the right ballpark about how much they raised and their burn rate.

Will they be successful? At what valuation? An interesting question! I figure their valuation could be anywhere between $0 and a few billions or so.

Why $0? No business model, and no obvious one on the horizon. Intense competition with the new product of the biggest incumbent that's already at 20x their size.

Why a few billions? ... (cont'd)

This is my first #Mastodon-powered fediverse server. _^

That means, https://aleph.land is one of the first and oldest Mastodon-based #Fediverse instance. _~

I occasionally log in here to keep it alive because this is historical and memorable for me. During this time, and before Mastodon was released, I was running my own Fediverse instance powered by #Hubzilla.

Back then, the protocol of the fediverse was #OpenMicroBlogging then #OStatus; #AcitivtyPub came years later.

Today, we have another federated protocol: #ATproto which is powering The #ATmosphere network (#Bluesky is just one instance).

(PS. Max chars in Aleph.Land is 1024; and using the #GlitchSoc fork since it came out.)

You can check out my first ever post using Mastodon here: https://aleph.land/@yahananxie/28062

@youronlyone

#MyFediverseJourney#SocialWeb#OpenSocialWeb#FederatedWeb#FederatedSocialWeb

I compared the architectures of AT Protocol (Bluesky) and ActivityPub (Mastodon, etc.)

You can see the tradeoffs between complexity and:

  • The ability to get a global view of the network.
  • Having nothing tied to your server: your identity, moderation, and feeds being independent from your instance.
  • Avoiding individual servers being flooded with traffic.

As always, all benefits have a cost and nothing is free. Which protocol is better depends on your goals. I’m really excited for both.

#ActivityPub #atproto #bluesky #mastodon #pixelfed #fediverse

At #FediForum today, we ran two sessions.

The first session brought together implementors of ActivityPub, AtProto/Bluesky, Nostr and IndieWeb applications to discuss how these protocols relate to each other, and what recommendations they all have for potential adopters who need to decide which to support.

It was a productive, cordial discussion and we will have more to say about it once FediForum publishes the notes from the meeting.

#activitypub #bluesky #atproto #nostr #indieweb #socialweb

Não me importo nada que os amigos do #Brasil migrem, na sua grande maioria, para #bluesky.

Ainda assim, os que decidirem migrar para o #mastodon, sejam muito bem vindos! Fizeram a melhor escolha! 😆 Aqui não há ads, nem algoritmos, mas lembrem-se que não estão no #twitter, por isso convém usar regras básicas de respeito e cordialidade. Beleza?

Agora toca a tootar com força. Um abraço a todos!

I really feel this #MastodonMigration due to the #Twitter ban in #Brazil might be our last chance. It is clear that #Bluesky has the marketing that #Mastodon lacks - understandable given its FOSS nature.

But these moments are rare, and if this is indeed the start of Twitter's downfall, it may be our last chance to secure Mastodon as The Public Forum. We can't hand over its keys to another for-profit that will enshitify the forum of our democracies in the years to come.

It is our time as users to promote Mastodon, especially for those of us who work in the press or have other distribution channels. Yes, we may even have to come back to The Bird Cage to convince our mutuals to choose Mastodon when the time comes. This is the first time an entire country has been forced to choose between Mastodon and Bluesky, and what Brazil chooses might determine what the rest of the world chooses as the dominoes continue to fall.

So get out there and convince everyone. It could be our last chance.

No paro de pensar en lo desaprovechado que está siendo el bloqueo de #Twitter en #Brasil. Y me preocupa porque #Bluesky dispone de un marketing con el que #Mastodon solo puede soñar.

Oportunidades como esta las hay a cuentagotas, y si Twitter finalmente cae, esta podría ser la última oportunidad para asegurar Mastodon como El Foro Público por excelencia. No podemos regalarle las llaves a otro gigante para que mierdifique el foro de nuestras democracias cuando el ciclo se vuelva a cerrar.

Es nuestro momento como usuarios para promocionar Mastodon, sobre todo si disponéis de otros altavoces. Deberíamos incluso volver a la jaula del pajarito para recordar a los rezagados que elijan Mastodon llegado el momento. Es la primera vez que un país entero se ve obligado a elegir LA alternativa, y de lo que Brasil elija probablemente dependa lo que elija el resto del mundo según sigan cayendo las fichas.

Por favor, salid ahí fuera y convenced a todos. Esta podría ser nuestra última oportunidad.

I really feel this #MastodonMigration due to the #Twitter ban in #Brazil might be our last chance. It is clear that #Bluesky has the marketing that #Mastodon lacks - understandable given its FOSS nature.

But these moments are rare, and if this is indeed the start of Twitter's downfall, it may be our last chance to secure Mastodon as The Public Forum. We can't hand over its keys to another for-profit that will enshitify the forum of our democracies in the years to come.

It is our time as users to promote Mastodon, especially for those of us who work in the press or have other distribution channels. Yes, we may even have to come back to The Bird Cage to convince our mutuals to choose Mastodon when the time comes. This is the first time an entire country has been forced to choose between Mastodon and Bluesky, and what Brazil chooses might determine what the rest of the world chooses as the dominoes continue to fall.

So get out there and convince everyone. It could be our last chance.

@noellemitchell Right now that, plus #Bluesky's public numbers, followed by #FediDB numbers over time are likely the best sources of info on the Brazil X/TwitterMigration.
Last Week in #Fediverse - ep 82

This week's news:

- A massive signup wave on #Bluesky after Brazil bans X
- Premium feeds in the fediverse with @subclub
- Moderated microblogging groups by @newsmast
- Popular tech show WVFRM with YouTuber @mkbhd discusses the fediverse as the protocol wars.
- Hiding comments and preventing quote posts with Bluesky's latest update

Read at https://fediversereport.com/last-week-in-fediverse-ep-82/

It pains me to see #Mastodon in such a dire state

Meta is building and growing #Threads quickly, and Mastodon can only acts as a powerful counterweight if the platform itself is in good shape

Today, it is not

It’s not catastrophic, but the writing is on the wall

And what’s virtually certain is that Mastodon has definitely missed the unique window that Elon Musk opened when he bought Twitter

Such a window won’t reopen soon, and possibly will never happen again

3/4

All of this should be a wake up call for #Mastodon as a community

I’m not super optimistic to be honest, which is why I’ve basically deserted the platform and I’m spending my time on #Bluesky these days

The silver lining of today’s events in Brazil is that even if Mastodon is left out of the equation, another open platform is benefiting from this mess

4/4

#Mastodon has been losing users for a long time

Many of us warned that the app was too complicated, the culture too toxic, the economic model not strong enough to sustain a fast-paced development

In just a few months, #Bluesky shipped DMs, major moderation features, third-party moderation, and will soon ship video

The last major Mastodon update was 11 *months* ago. An eternity.

2/4